We've posted our 2009 Las Vegas Real Estate Report online. There is extensive information regarding the residential real estate market. Click here to view.

Today there was an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal regarding possible strengthening in mark-to-market rules. Banks have often been opposed to these rules because they are forced to write down values in times when they believe markets to be irrational, when investors flee a market based on fear. Conversely, banks may be holding loans at artificially high-values. Investors are tired of this, knowing that banks are holding some loans in la la land and are not moving forward in moving these loans and ultimately the collateral, like commercial buildings, to market. Many investors might be happy to see banks looking at their portfolios more realistically. On the other hand, can many banks find the provisions to offset the losses?

For the WSJ article, click here.

Ernst & Young recently released its Global Real Estate Investment Trust Report 2010: Against all odds. For U.S REITs, the report notes several key components that factor into their outlook. Firstly, after a horrible 2008 and a choppy 2009, REITs have been able to raise significant capital, mostly through the sale of shares. Another aspect of this sector is deleveraging, although many REITs still have significant debt. I would guess that many of these REITs will have to pay down some more of this debt before they can't begin aquiring more property.

Ernst & Young believes that in the 1990's commercial real estate had an excess supply problem. That is, myopic builders overestimated demand for commercial properties and way to much space was available based on current demand. In the current period, demand simply evaporated, causing an exodus. We saw this in our local market, Las Vegas as well. Not long ago we had record low vacancies in industrial and retail, almost to the point where only the obsolete space was left (one could argue that office was overbuilt). Now we have high vacancies in each main sector, office, retail and industrial. Ernst & Young believes that with a rebound in the U.S economy, absorption should be absorbed quickly. I think it will take a fairly broad national recovery before we see significant absorption in the Las Vegas Valley.

The next big feature of REITs today is the targeting of distressed assets, although some companies have been hesitant to purchase other firms with "legacy" issues like large debt obligations. In addition, banks have been slow to write-down values and dispossess themselves of commercial assets. Its not always that they don't want to, it is that they just can't. it will hammer their ratios too much and they need to raise capital to offset the loss. Nevertheless, M & A activity may increase as another avenue to acquire assets, along the lines of Simon Property Group's attempt to acquire General Growth Properities.

It's not all about distressed assets however, as performing properties are sought as well. Even these appear to be on sale, especially by foreign investors as noted by Reuters:

We see a pretty significant amount of interest by foreign capital into US real estate -- not necessarily foreign REITs, but private equity, sovereign wealth funds," Roth said. "There is a general belief that after the significant decline in values that now is the time if you have capital to (chase) risk-adjusted returns."  (Reuters: Global REIT values to grow in 2010-Ernst & Young, March 2010).

So far in Q1, we've seen a lot of genuine interest in assets in the Las Vegas Valley, not so much by REITs (although General Growth has a lot of exposure here) but by foriegn investors big and small, as well as by hedge funds and schooled, large investors raising money in private channels. If Q1 is any indicator for the rest of 2010, its going to be an interesting year.


For the Ernst & Young Report Click Here

For the Reuters article Click Here

We've discussed trends in median prices and Case-Shiller as well as IHS Global Insight's view that Las Vegas is the most undervalued large metro area but fundamentally, where are Las Vegas home prices? While fundamental values are unobservable, we can use proxy indicators such as the price-to-rent ratio. One can think of this like a price/dividend ratio in stocks.

As the exhibit below demonstrates, the recent price/rent ratio is far below the baseline, which we've established based on the 2001-2002 years before the ridiculous run-up in prices. We have experienced severe declines in prices, driving the ratio down. The mechanism of the market can bring this ratio back into line by a combination of rent and price adjustments, which we are seeing now. Rents appear to be declining due to the amount of available inventory as well as weak employment and diminished household formation. However, rental prices have been quite sticky. Home prices have not been sticky and we saw massive adjustments.

Currently we have been settling and have observed median prices bounce between positive and negative on a month-to-month basis. Based on the price/rent measure, it is reasonable to expect that when employment rebounds and in-migration resumes with force, we will again see home price appreciation and a return to fundamental values. When could this happen? Thats difficult to say. When prices were above our measures of fundamental values it was pretty easy to make a forecast. For a monthly forecast, as long as it was in the single digits and had a negative in front of it, that was a reasonable forecast. Now that prices are undervalued but you still have underlying economic weakness, its difficult to forecast. Monthly forecasts have not been what our investors are looking for however. A typical strategy (not by flippers of course) is to hold with the expectation that you will own it for at least five years. What do you think will happen in five years? Ask yourself that, frame it in the context of your risk tolerances and carry costs and take a look at some of the residential assets in the market today. It might be very worthwile.

For a slightly academic discussion of price-rent ratios Click Here.


             Source: Mlxchange, Coldwell Banker Premier Realty.