The Conference Boards leading economic index pointed up again in June, registering 100.9, up from 100.2 in May. This is the third month that the index has shown increases. This is a welcome sign, however it would be premature to say that we are out of this mess. The coincident and lagging indicators still point downward. However, the coincident index is showing smaller declines than the beginning of the year.

Some observers point to this as evidence that the recession may end sometime at the end of this year. Housing starts have also been noteably higher, though still far less than June 2008, which makes sense since some areas still have excess inventory. I don't see these as signs that a "V" shaped recovery is possible but outside of the employment figures, the pace of decline looks like it is slowing. In local markets, we have to keep an eye on commercial real estate losses, which regional and community banks tended to have exposure too.

In Las Vegas, record home sales are a sign of confidence in the long-run potentials of the area. After a recent weekend in Los Angeles, I find it noteable how much better looking the infrastructure in the Las Vegas Valley is. I also find that compared to a lot of larger metros, Las Vegas looks quite clean and is reasonably efficient, despite years of trying to keep up with an increasing population. We look forward to the local population estimates this summer so we should have an idea of how the economy may have effected population growth. 

Link to Housing Starts: http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf

Link to Conference Board: http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/begweek.pdf